The Unsustainability of the Odd-Even Scheme
By Jayati Narain
Image 1: Delhi roads during rush hour traffic.
For the first 15 days of January 2016, Delhi roads have been
undergoing what is globally known as road
space rationing. Commonly referred to as the odd-even car scheme. This has been a drastic move by the AAP
government to take action against the alarming pollution levels in the city.
The scheme states that on odd dates cars with license plate
numbers ending in an odd digit may ply, and on even number dates cars with
license plate numbers ending in an even digit may ply. A number of details have been given as to how the scheme is to function,
action against violators and those exempt from the scheme. The ultimate goal of
the scheme is to reduce the total number of cars on the road, thus bringing
down the pollution level.
While the scheme has been
criticized from many quarters, many citizens of Delhi have welcomed the
move. Much of the acceptance around the scheme has been along the lines of ‘at
least something is being done.’ Such a statement
is extremely telling of the urgency felt in needing to address the air
pollution and the complete lack of action by previous governments. However, the
relief over action being taken is
clouding the most important question of
how successful such a scheme will be.
Unfortunately based on the current situation the long-term
success of such a move seems rather doubtful. This
can be said looking at the causes of pollution in Delhi, the lack of a
supporting public a
number of ways in which the scheme
can be circumvented.
Several
studies have shown that the air pollution in Delhi is caused by a number of
factors, not just from the emissions from private vehicles. Larger contributing
factors are from the industries and brick kilns surrounding the city. Along
with the burning of wood fires in the winter. Given the level of pollution in Delhi,
even making a dent in a single contributing factor seems worthwhile. In the
short term this may be the case, but if the larger causes are not addressed
pollution levels in Delhi will only continue to rise.
Image 2: Delhi roads during the odd even scheme
More then
effecting the pollution level, such a move has had a noticeable impact on congestion level in the city. Another much
needed and welcome change for Delhi traffic. But, as the development of wider
roads and flyovers has shown, more road space leads to more cars. Those willing
to invest in a second car (as many seem to be), or add to growing license plate
black market (again, as many seem to be), will now prefer to be on the road. This is also linked to a lack of investment in
public transport.
This is probably the
biggest problem with the odd-even scheme. A 15 day scheme like this is a great way of pushing people to use public
transport and experience an alternative mode of transport, they may not have
use regularly. However, little has been done in this regard. The government has
been promoting carpooling, ride share apps and has added school buses to the
regular DTC fleet (possible, due to schools being on Winter Break). Compared to
many cities in India, Delhi has a good public transport system. But the current
metro and bus infrastructure was inadequate even before this scheme was started. With increased ridership in the
next 15 days, this will only be further exaggerated. The need for investment in
public transport and pedestrian infrastructure is crucial to the development of
any city. Such infrastructure has benefits beyond pollution and congestion
reduction.
Much of the
discussion surrounding the success of the scheme, including that by the Delhi
government, is about compliance rather than long-term change. There has been a
call for a shift in the attitude and behaviour of Delhi-wallahs. The effect of appeals such as these will have little
impact, as the behaviour of the Delhi-wallah’s is not very different from that
of citizens of any other city. People will continue to do what makes the most sense for them. While this may come of as
selfish, it is also rational. If behaviour changes are required they should be brought about by systemic and
structural changes, rather simply emotional appeals. While these appeals may
work in the short term, their long-term effects are negligible. Structural
changes force a change in behavior simply because it is more rational. Thus, if
a car driver is inconvenienced due to
lack of road space or congestion taxes and public transport is a viable option,
it is a perfectly rational decision to switch over. Unfortunately given our
particular level of development, the use of public transport is tied up with
status and class. The only way to over come this is that cars must be inconvenienced. While the odd even scheme
achieves this, it does little to project public transport as a viable option.
The ultimate
success of the scheme should be dependent on
people continuing to use public transport even after the 15th of
January. Unfortunately given the current capacity of public transport and the
state of its surrounding infrastructure, it is unlikely many will continue to
use it, unless they are already frequent users.
The major
problem with the odd even scheme is not in its implementation or if people will
comply, it is simply that it is short sighted. Even if it is able to bring down pollution level in during
the fifteen day trial period, it cannot be indefinitely extended due to its
unsustainability.
While it is
good that some action is being taken,
this does not mean that we shouldn’t be critical of it. Such a scheme does have
the possibility of being a success, but only if the investment is made in
improving the city’s public transport services and infrastructure.
*The author is the managing associate of CPPR- Centre for Urban Studies. Views are personal.
Image 1- PTI
Image 2- Trina Shankar
