Determinants
of the Cochin Corporation Election
By Gowri S.*
Two
decades have passed since the 73rd and 74th amendments
were enacted, and now Kerala has 978 Grama panchayats, 152 Block Panchayats and
14 Zilla Panchayats in the rural areas and for the urban areas, it has 60
Municipalities and 5 Corporations and therefore a total of 1209 Local Self
Government Institutions.
Formed
on 1 November 1967 by merging the municipalities of Fort Kochi, Mattancherry
and Ernakulam, the Cochin Corporation today is divided into 74 administrative
wards from which the corporation council members are elected for a period of
five years. The elections for the next council will be held in November.
Here
we try to look at the elections to the Cochin Corporation and understand the
political setting of the city, from the point of view of the councillors.
Political parties and media outlets try to gauge the mood of voters, in order
to work out what will be the decisive issues for the coming elections. This is particularly
important for the parties, as their campaigning strategy would be built around
discussing these issues and their relevance to the city.
Interviewing
a number of local councillors this summer, it became clear that there are
certain issues that seem to cut cross political boundaries. While the manner in
which various parties approach these issues may differ, they definitely seem to
be matters that are on each parties radar.
Distribution of interviewees
Party
|
Ward name
|
Seat
|
CPI M
|
Elamakkara
North
|
General
|
INC
|
Karanakkodam
|
General
|
INC
|
Ponekkara
|
General
|
BJP
|
Ernakulam
Central
|
Women
|
INC
|
Vytilla
|
Women
|
INC
|
Ernakulam
South
|
Women
|
INC
|
Vytilla
Janatha
|
Women
|
INC
|
Pachalam
|
Women
|
INC
|
Ravipuram
|
Women
|
INC
|
Ayyappankavi
|
Women
|
While
the sample interviewed (see above table) is in no way exhaustive, it does allow
for some general observations regarding what the politicians consider to be determining
factors in this election.
Determinants of election
Local
level issues:
It
is no surprise that local level issues and problems faced by the people on a
day to day basis are the most significant factor in the Corporation election.
Transportation, infrastructure, waste management, water availability, mosquito
menace etc. form the core issues on which people vote. It is from here that an
evaluation of the present council and expectation from the next determine who
comes to power next.
National
and State level issues:
The
major social, economic and political factors affecting the State and
parliamentary elections also have an influence on the local body polls. The
anti-corruption mood of the nation, welcoming new actors and the promise of
development had influenced the National elections and for the coming state
assembly elections too, these factors are likely to make an impact.
Also according to the
election schedule of the state, the local body polls will be followed by
assembly elections in the next year. Until now the front which has won the
majority in the local body polls has been able to win a majority in the
assembly elections as well. Thus, not only are local body elections an
indicator of the state assembly elections, but also a crucial test for parties
in order to succeed at the state level.
Party
and Candidate:
The
stature of the candidate and which party she/he represents are influential when
it comes to the election. Out of the total 74 candidates in the last election, 11
of them are either in their consecutive second or third term. A good portion of
the voters today still have ideological affiliations and vote accordingly.
Anti-incumbency:
Anti-incumbency
feelings play a very important and noteworthy role, especially in the context
of Kerala. It worked in favour of the UDF in the 2010 elections and may work
against it in the upcoming one. It is the bipolar nature of the state politics
has led to this pattern, and the opposition is likely to build its campaign
around the incumbency feeling of the people.
According
to a report by the Lokniti studies, 56 per cent feel that a change in
government every five years is beneficial for development. This is may also be
one of the effects of the high education rate, with more people ready make full
use the democratic process.
Caste
and religious mobilisations:
In
the local body polls, the caste influence is visible in the nomination of the
candidates, this due to the fact that the demographic setting of the
constituency and communal sentiments are very relevant to the elections.
Caste and
religious mobilisations too influence the election verdict especially in the
State and parliamentary elections; here the coalition partners, become of key
importance. Thus vote bank politics ,and community & identity based
continue to function.
How people
vote in the upcoming local elections is yet to be seen. Based on the interviews
conducted, an idea can be given as to how the party representatives are
viewing the election. How they choose to prioritise and frame these determinants
will be seen through the course of their campaigns.
The
ability of the two fronts to absorb any new emerging parties prevents a new
face from coming up. While the BJP could be expected to win a few seats, no
doubt due to the its dominance at the Centre, it wining a majority is still
unlikely.
This election is
likely to once agin put to test the established patterns of; a result towards anti-incumbency, and the Corporation and state level success of the same
party.
* Author was an intern at CPPR. All views are personal.
Photograph: Jon Super/AP
